January 12th Market Update

Alright, mortgage navigators! 🧭 We’ve survived the first week of 2026, but don’t pack away the party hats just yet—next week is the main event for the bond market. If last week was the warm-up, this week is the heavyweight championship of data!

Here’s your economic playbook for January 12th – January 16th, 2026:

The 'Inflation & Retail' Double-Header! ⚾️

· Monday, Jan 12th: * The Calm Before the Storm: No major US reports are scheduled. It's a perfect day to follow up on those "New Year, New Home" leads while the markets are quiet! 📁☕️

· Tuesday, Jan 13th: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)! 💲🚨

o The Big One: This is the heavyweight champion. It tells us if inflation is cooling off or staying "sticky." If CPI is lower than expected, it’s a green light for lower mortgage rates! ⬇️ If it’s high, expect some rate-lock tension. 😬

o Real Earnings: Released alongside CPI, showing if Americans' paychecks are actually keeping up with those prices.

· Wednesday, Jan 14th: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) & Retail Sales! 🏭🛍️

o The Wholesale Check: PPI shows what manufacturers are paying. If their costs go down, consumer prices usually follow.

o The Spending Check:Retail Sales tell us if the holiday shopping hangover is real or if people are still swiping those cards. High spending = strong economy = upward pressure on rates.

· Thursday, Jan 15th: Empire State & Philly Fed Manufacturing! 🏗️📉

o A double dose of regional factory data! We also get the weekly Jobless Claims to see if the labor market is starting 2026 on a strong note.

· Friday, Jan 16th: Industrial Production & Consumer Sentiment! ⚙️😄

o We wrap up the week seeing how much our factories are pumping out and how "sunny" consumers feel about the future.

What This Means for Your Mortgage Mission:

It is all about Inflation vs. The Consumer this week! 🥊

· The "Rate Relief" Scenario: If Tuesday's CPI shows inflation is behaving and Wednesday's Retail Sales show a post-holiday dip, the bond market will be very happy. This could lead to a nice window for lower rates.📉

· The "Wait and See" Scenario: If inflation surprises to the upside, the Fed might stay "higher for longer," which keeps mortgage rates steady or trending up.⬆️

A Fun Fact for the Week: Rubber Duckie Day!

Did you know that January 13th is National Rubber Duckie Day? 🐥🛁 It’s the same day the CPI report drops! Just like a rubber duckie, we want inflation to stay "afloat" but definitely not sink the ship. If the market gets a little wavy this week, just remember to stay buoyant and keep your clients calm—you’re the captain of this bath... er, transaction! 🚢

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