January 19th Market Update
Alright, team! After the heavy-hitting inflation data we've been tracking, we’re heading into a week that starts with a pause for reflection before diving into a "catch-up" surge of housing and growth data.
Here’s your economic playbook for January 19th – January 23rd, 2026:
🚨 Holiday Alert: MLK Day! 🚨
· Monday, Jan 19th: Martin Luther King Jr. Day🕊️🇺🇸
o Market Status: Banks and the Bond Market are CLOSED.
o The Impact: Since the bond market is taking the day off, mortgage rates will be locked tight. Use this day to recharge and reflect on the dream of homeownership you help fulfill every day! Regular action resumes bright and early Tuesday.
The Post-Holiday Data Sprint (Tuesday - Friday)
· Tuesday, Jan 20th: Existing Home Sales! 🔑🏘️
o After the Monday break, we jump right into the resale market. This report tells us how many people closed on homes in December. It's the ultimate pulse check on buyer demand!
· Wednesday, Jan 21st: Construction Spending! 🏗️💰
o Are we building the future? This report shows the total value of construction work done. High numbers signal a robust economy, which can sometimes put a little "heat" on rates.
· Thursday, Jan 22nd: THE BIG THURSDAY DUMP! 📊🔥
o GDP (Q3 Updated Estimate): A big look back at how the economy actually performed.
o Personal Income & Outlays (PCE): This is the Fed's absolute favorite inflation gauge. If the "October and November" catch-up data shows prices are cooling, it’s a late holiday gift for rates! 🎁
o Initial Jobless Claims: Our weekly check-up on the labor market's health.
· Friday, Jan 23rd: GDP by State & Personal Income by State! 🗺️💲
o We wrap the week with a localized look at wealth and growth. Great for seeing which regions are booming!
What This Means for Your Mortgage Mission:
The concentrated flood of data on Thursday is the "main event." 🥊
· The "Dream" Scenario: If the PCE inflation data comes in softer than expected, we could see bond yields drop, giving us a beautiful window to lock in lower rates for your clients. ⬇️
· The "Stay Alert" Scenario: Because Monday is a holiday, the market's reaction on Tuesday and Thursday might be more "explosive" as traders play catch-up. Watch those Treasury yields closely! 🎢
A Fun Fact for the Week: Popcorn Day!
Did you know that January 19th is National Popcorn Day? 🍿 While the markets are closed for MLK Day, it’s the perfect time to grab a snack and relax. And just like a single kernel of popcorn has the potential to expand into something great, every lead you talk to this week has the potential to turn into a closed loan and a happy homeowner! 💡
-tom