March 2nd Market Update

Here’s your economic playbook for March 2nd – March 6th, 2026:

The 'Labor Force & Lucky Leads' Week! 🍀💼

·       Monday, March 2nd: ISM Manufacturing & Banana Cream Pie! 🏭🥧

o   The Data:ISM Manufacturing PMI. This is our first major look at how the industrial sector is starting the spring. A strong number means the economy is running hot!

o   The Fun: It’s National Banana Cream Pie Day! 🍌 It’s also Dr. Seuss Day. "You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose!" Steer those clients toward a pre-approval today!

·       Tuesday, March 3rd: Cold Cuts & Conversations! 🥪🗣️

o   The Data: No massive US reports, but the market will be digesting Monday’s manufacturing news.

o   The Fun: It’s National Cold Cuts Day. 🥩 Perfect for a quick deli sandwich while you power through your CRM. It’s also National Moscow Mule Day, so maybe a ginger beer (or the real thing!) is in order for happy hour.

·       Wednesday, March 4th: ADP Payrolls, ISM Services & The Beige Book! ☕️📖

o   The Data:ADP Employment (the private sector jobs preview) and ISM Services PMI (80% of the economy!). We also get the Fed’s Beige Book at 2:00 PM EST—a collection of "boots on the ground" economic stories from across the country.

o   The Fun: It’s National Snack Day! 🥨 Keep the energy high with your favorite treats—you'll need the fuel for a busy afternoon of Fed-watching.

·       Thursday, March 5th: Jobless Claims & Cheese Doodles! 📉🧀

o   The Data: The weekly pulse check on unemployment filings.

o   The Fun:National Cheese Doodle Day. Just try not to get orange dust on your keyboard while you're locking those rates! ⌨️🧡

·       Friday, March 6th: THE MAIN EVENT—The Jobs Report! 📊🧑‍💻

o   The Data:Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This is the heavyweight champion. 🥊 The market will react instantly to the job growth and wage data. Strong jobs = potential rate pressure. Weak jobs = a potential "luck of the Irish" window for lower rates. 📉

o   The Fun: It’s National Oreo Day. 🍪 Whether the data is "sweet" or a bit "crunchy," an Oreo makes everything better.

What This Means for Your Mortgage Mission:

·       The Friday Jolt (NFP): Everything this week is just a setup for Friday at 8:30 AM EST. If the jobs report shows the labor market is cooling, we could see a beautiful dip in bond yields. If it’s too strong, be prepared for rates to be stubborn. ↔️

·       Services Strength (Wednesday): Watch the ISM Services report. If consumers are still spending heavily on services, it tells us the economy is resilient, giving the Fed less reason to rush into rate cuts.

A Fun Fact for the Week: Dr. Seuss's Bet!

Did you know that Dr. Seuss wrote Green Eggs and Ham on a bet that he couldn't write a book using only 50 different words? 🎩🥚 Just like Dr. Seuss, you have to be creative with the "words" (or products) you have to make a deal work. Sometimes the simplest solution is the best one!

-tom